The cover image of this article is from mprnews.org.

Longtime Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow will Not Seek Re-election

Senator Debbie Stabenow, longtime senior Democratic Senator from Michigan will not be seeking re-election in 2024.

Her departure presents a difficult challenge for Democrats, who already have a tough job holding on to Senate control in the upcoming elections.

Among the 34 seats likely to go up for grabs in the upcoming elections, 23 are held by Democrats. Seven of those seats are held by Democrats representing states which Donald Trump won at least once during his time in office.

That includes Michigan, though Stabenow would have certainly have made the Democrats' job easier if she decided to run again. Stabenow has won by wide margins in all of her previous elections.

Not only does Stabenow's departure mean that Democrats have to find a way to defend her seat, they also have to find a way to defend Kyrsten Sinema's seat in Arizona. Sinema just recently broke with the Democrats and declared her independence. Democrats in the Senate currently hold a slim majority of 51 votes, and losing just two seats to Republicans could cost them the chamber.

The two major questions for Republicans in Michigan are what kind of candidate do the party's primary voters want and will Republicans continue to surpass national results if Trump isn't on the ballot?

In the 2022 elections, Republicans' primary choices ended up losing in the general election. It was especially apparent in the gubernatorial race, where Republican candidate Todd Dixon was soundly beaten by incumbent Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

If Republicans want to compete in Michigan in 2024, they must choose more mainstream candidates than they did in 2022.

This also leads to the larger question about how the Great Lakes states, such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, will vote without Trump on the ballot.

These states had been voting to the left of the nation until 2016, when they began to vote to the right. Trump's appeal to White, non-college educated voters was a major factor in the shift.

Last year, Michigan voted to the left of the nation in US House races, while Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voted in line with the nation overall. It's not uncommon for the swing states to shift relative to the overall trend during a presidential election year, but it remains to be seen if that will happen in 2024.

No Democrat has lost a Senate race in Michigan since 1994, and while Stabenow's departure opens up a new challenge for the party, they may fare better than expected if the national trend shifts away from Republican leanings.